Does Sarah Palin Have an 80% Approval Rating?

posted by Josh Goodman

Sarah Palin has an 80% approval rating -- I've read it more times than I can count over the past five days. But is it true?

It certainly was true as of May. Take a look at this report from KTUU in Alaska, as reproduced by the Republican Governors Association:

KTUU - Sarah Palin's popularity initially seemed to be a honeymoon of sorts -- the soccer mom had it coming, many thought, after defeating an incumbent governor and a former two-term governor in the 2006 elections.

As 2007 progressed Palin's continued high standing in public opinion polls became a big political success story.

Now, her sustained approval rating of more than 80 percent is widely seen as something of a phenomenon.

Last week, a poll found 86 percent of Alaskans had a favorable view of Sarah Palin, with more than half of those expressing very favorable feelings toward the governor.

That, however, was before Troopergate hit. The most recent independent survey available is a July 30 Rasmussen poll which found that 64% Alaskans rate the job Palin is doing as excellent or good. That's not shabby by any means, but it's not 80%.

But, Rasmussen seems to produce lower approval ratings than other polling firms. That may be a result of the choices they give respondents: excellent, good, fair and poor. Even in April, when other polling firms had Palin at 80% or higher, Rasmussen "only" had her at 73%.

A week before the Rasmussen poll, Hays Research, another polling firm, surveyed Palin's approval rating. The result: 80% exactly. That was also after Troopergate got started. Plus, the McCain campaign released polling today that put Palin at 86%, although they aren't exactly unbiased observers.

What's the upshot here? If I were writing a newspaper story on Palin, I'd use one of two journalistic techniques that help ensure accuracy: 1) Get very specific. 2) Fudge like crazy.

Specific: Palin is broadly popular in Alaska. A late July poll from Hays Research placed her approval rating at 80%.

Fudging: Palin consistently has had sky-high approval ratings in polls of Alaskans.

What I wouldn't write, however, is "Palin has an 80% approval rating" and just leave it at that.

Comments

[Tim Lawler]

So which technique are you using in this article? I was always under the impression journalistic standards required "fudging" or conjecture as it were, to be confined to the OP-ed page. Besides the fact that one can "shop around" for polling data that is palatable to one's own political bent, what is your point?

[Josh Goodman]

Tim, I disagree on fudging. Not only does it appear in news articles all the time, but there are good reasons for it.

I was recently writing a story about ballot initiatives and wrote this sentence: "Upwards of 60 will appear on state ballots November 3." The phrase "upwards of 60" is an act of fudging.

Why didn't I just give an exact number? Some initiatives are pending approval for the ballot. Others are tied up in court.

I could have tried to be really precise ("60 are officially on the ballot, while 8 more are pending approval" or something like that), but that would have presented a moving target. By the time my story went to print, another initiative might have been approved. One might have been thrown off the ballot. A vague phrase really was the best way to avoid making a mistake. It's better to be precise than vague, but it's better to be vague than wrong.

I've read/heard lots of media outlets using the 80% figure and got the sense that they were all working off of a press release or one another, without taking a look at the numbers. It's not a huge point -- Palin is obviously very popular in Alaska -- but whenever multiple major media outlets are doing something wrong, I think it's worth pointing out.

[Elizabeth]

Good explanation Josh. Good journalistic standards are clearly in use here.

[Tim Lawler]

I see your point, but I don't agree with your explination of fudging. Being vague is not useful at all. In fact, I would venture to say that the use of "vagueness" is a tool for conditioning a story to one's own point of view. What ever happened reporting the fact as they stand "at the time the article went to press". Statistical polls are constantly changing, to complain about a static moment in a dynamic process and characterize it as wrongdoing is a bit much. In addition, this is far from the first time that "Major Press" has been wrong.

[Janice]

President Bush had an approval rating of 88% in late 2001 - where is it now?

[Christopher]

Janice - what point are you trying to make? Every politician who is as popular as George W. Bush once was will one day become very unpopular? Or do you just not like her and want to use the opportunity to put her down?

[R. Alaskan]

Yup. She is VERY popular here in Alaska. Everyone not only likes her and her family personally, but tend to be protective of her. When the media interview Alaskans who are not fans of the governor, they are searching out a little over one out of ten, Even I have a problem finding people here who don't like her and don't support her. Some will probably vote against her because they do like her and want to keep her here as governor. Her approval rating is remarkable and still strongly true.

[J]

Janice and what is your point? That poll numbers go up and down...wow!!..enlightening.Thanks.

[frsbdg]

People seem to be missing the point about all this. Palin's approval rating as Governor of Alaska is totally irrelevant. She is running for Vice President of the United States, which has a completely different job description (for which she is totally unqualified).

Let me put it another way: the Jiffy Lube down on Main Street has an 80% customer satisfaction rating. That doesn't mean I'm going to trust those guys to do my open heart surgery.

[Jill]

She has 100% approval rating in my book.

[Alex R]

If you use the same criteria when judging Palin as Vp and Obama as President how is Obama more qualified to lead the country on DAY-ONE.

[Lauren]

I think we are also forgetting that this approval comes from a STATE whose entire population of 680,000. The CITY of Austin, Texas has the same population. To put this in perspective, LA is now at 3.9 million.

And when she was mayor, Wasilla was a town of 5,000. I know people that graduated from high schools with populations bigger than that.

So its easy for us to just say she had a high approval rating, but isn't that like saying she was the most popular kid in high school?

[steve]

Alex: "If you use the same criteria when judging Palin as VP and Obama as President how is Obama more qualified to lead the country on DAY-ONE."

I believe you meant to ask a question, am I right? Well, the answer is like this:

Start with education; Obama has a Juris Doctor - that's a Doctorate in Law. Sarah has a B.A. in communications.

Obama served seven years in the Illinois Senate and three and one-half years in the US Senate. His Illinois Senate District had a population of 653,000. Illinois' population is 132 million. Sarah served on the city council and then became mayor of a city of 30,000. She has served almost two years as governor of Alaska. Alaska's population is 670,000.

Obama speaks as if he understands national and international issues. Despite his relative youth, he at least tied John McCain in Friday's debate. Sarah can't get her talking points out coherently.

I could go on, but you probably aren't interested.

[thomas oneill]

Palin really has no qualifications for the either VP or President. Its a shame. I dont fault her but do fault John McCain. He should not be President due to this failure and lack of respect for the office and people.

I used favor McCain but now dont. I have seen Palin interviewed and there is no way
she can pull it off. McCain looks like a tutor concerned his student will make a mistake. All very nice but not good enough for the USA. I am beginning to learn a lot about John Mc and what i see i dont like; he is a poor choice. A maverick who goes against the grain at all costs should not be president

[Lauren]

"A maverick who goes against the grain at all costs should not be president"

I have nothing against him being a maverick. But I do find fault with his apparent lack of understanding of women,and his assumtion that his candidate choice will prevail based on her gender, though her policy is directly in opposition to all women's rights.

He tried to play women as fools, and chose a candidate he thought he could use as bait for women voters. We need to stand up to him, and show him that women are not gullible to a female candidate that does not represent our best interests.

[Alex]

Lauren

I do care

Obama practiced very little law his major court appearance was helping ACORN, a big strike against Obama.
A Gov. in a relatively sparsely populated state as Alaska has make tough decision that a senator never has to make that why she has more executive experience than Obama. Sitting on a foundation controlled by Ayers for one year does not compare. And funding Ayers's radical school programs while Bill is on the same board is ugly. Obamo is not above it is deep in it. Question is not his Associations but is Socialist philosophy that all of you don't seem to find a problem with.

Also Obamao choose Biden, as he says, because he needed help with Foreign policy.

If all you think that redistribution of wealth in this country is needed then say hello to a different philosophy for our future than the one that has made America great in the last 232 years. And look at the success of those country that have tried the to do it.

Its not the color of his skin its the what he bring to the table.

[evan]

Obama's tax plan isn't some radical new direction, it's simply reverting the taxes back to the way they were when Clinton was president. I think we can all agree we were better off then than now.

I'm not voting for some anger freak who crashed a bunch of fighter planes. You can replace a plane, but not America.

[geedafotus]

Obama is running for the job of President of the United States with no executive experience. You could say he is unqualified, yet no one questions that. On the other hand Sarah Palin is running for Vice President with several years of executive experience and everyone is saying she isn't qualified. How is that possible? Do you think we are having the wool pulled over our eyes by the media?

[joemama]

The state of Delaware (Joe J.o.b.s. Biden's home state) has a population of 850,000. I bet he doesn't have a 80% approval rating.

[Tom O'Leary]

Let's clear some things up.

1. To compare Obama to Palin is ridiculous.

Obama has degrees in Political Science and Law. He was the President of the Harvard Law Review (an esteemed position). He practiced Law and was a Constitutional Law scholar and professor. He was a 3 term State Senator and is a US Senator. He knows about the constitution and the laws of this land.

Palin doesn't even know what the constitution states with regard to the role of the Vice President - the role she is applying for. She has a BA in Journalism and has expressed no knowledge in international or domestic affairs. She has only regurgitated talking points that have been fed to her. Anytime that she has tried to speak for herself on an issue it has proved embarrassing.

2. Obama's economic plan is supported by the majority of leading independent economists in the United States. I am amazed how so many poor and middle class Republicans think that continuing to give tax breaks to the wealthiest 5% instead of the middle class benefits them. The Bush economic policies have not worked. We have lost just under 1 million jobs in America this year alone. Giving tax breaks to the rich doesn't create jobs. It's happening now. Take a look. Lost jobs, foreclosures, retirements savings wiped out. All under the Bush/McCain economic policies.

You can continue to think that some of the wealth is going to eventually trickle down to you some day with the Bush/McCain economic policies, but you'll be waiting for a long time. It hasn't happened and it won't. But keep believing if you want to.

How poor and middle class McCain/Palin supporters think that McCain (who has at least 7 houses, a private jet, too many cars to count, etc.) understands the middle class better than Obama is beyond me. He isn't speaking to the middle class in his stump speeches. He's talking to the wealthy like himself. You've been duped. He once said that middle class was those making under $5 Million/year. Really?

3. The argument against Palin isn't about her [in]experience. There are many smart people in this country who don't have any political experience. The reason that Palin isn't ready to be VP or President is that she doesn't understand the issues. That's why the campaign hasn't allowed her to go on Meet the Press or talk off-the-cuff to reporters. She simply doesn't know anything about the Middle East, domestic or international economies, the Constitution, Education, Health care, Immigration or any other important issue that a viable candidate should know about. Her role is completely superficial.

Did anyone see the interview with the current Wasilla mayor? It was hilarious. They have no school district, no public services, no Fire Department. The only thing they do is have a staff meeting every Monday morning and write checks on Thursdays. And yet, this "executive experience" is touted by her supporters as something that makes her ready to be leader of the free world. Give me a break. Actually, even with the limited responsibilities of the position of Mayor of Wasilla, she managed to leave the town in debt when she left. [By the way, she has more executive experience than McCain too. He's been a career Senator. But somehow the argument isn't used to suggest that she should be at the top of their ticket.]

But the concerns that the majority of Americans (to include a growing number of Republicans) have about Palin isn't about her lack of experience - it's about her lack of even basic knowledge about the important issues that face the United States of America and the rest of the world.

I don't think that you have to be a 20 year political veteran to be an effective national leader. What is required (at a minimum) is that you have a good understanding of the economy, international affairs, trade, health care, education, history, law, etc.

Nothing that she has said so far suggests that she has knowledge (or even interest) in any of these issues.

The way the Republican party is going, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 2012 ticket of Palin/Joe the Plumber or Joe the Plumber/Palin

Good luck with that.

[Joemama is grossly misinformed]

Wow JoeMama, you sure run your mouth with a lot of "facts" that are entirely off the mark.

And it must be said: for years, lawyers have been the butt of jokes for ample reasons. Now you use use his JD (thanks for explaining what that is to us idiots out here) (LOL!) as a reason we should be impressed? Get real. You are as laughable as your psuedo messiah.

[Tom O'Leary not JoeMama]

Sorry, the way these posts are listed makes it seem the poster's name is at the top - instead they are at the bottom and appear to belong to the next post. My comments are directed to Tom O'Leary not JoeMama.